AJG

How is AJG doing right now?

In plain terms: AJG is 37.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now AJG — Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. — is in a severe drawdown, down 37.5% from its record high. Last price: $215.9. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what AJG did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

AJG reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (272 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for AJG

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.