Alpargatas S.A. · Consumer Cyclical
$13.07
-74.4%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against ALPA4's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: ALPA4's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Alpargatas S.A. manufactures and sells footwear and accessories in Brazil and internationally. The company offers its products under the Havaianas, ioasys, and Rothys brands. The company was formerly known as São Paulo Alpargatas S.A. and changed its name to Alpargatas S.A. in 2010. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: ALPA4 is 74.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
As of the latest market close, Alpargatas SA (ALPA4) is trading in a historic crash, 74.4% below its all-time high at $13.07. When an asset is this far below its peak, the binary becomes recovery vs. zero. Dipsern's segmentation answers the question with data, not narratives.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for ALPA4 — 64 confirmed observations in the 75%-to-70% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in brazilian stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to ALPA4's own volatility history. In crash territory, the most informative number is the worst observed forward return — not the median. The full app shows the max-loss column for the current segment.
Five tickers closest to ALPA4's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for ALPA4. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of ALPA4's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for ALPA4.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy ALPA4 at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.