Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund
$73.41
-2.2%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against BND's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: BND's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
This index measures the performance of a wide spectrum of public, investment-grade, taxable, fixed income securities in the United States-including government, corporate, and international dollar-denominated bonds, as well as mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities-all with maturities of more than 1 year. All of the fund's investments will be selected through the sampling process, and at least 80% of its assets will be invested in bonds held in the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: BND is 2.2% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
As of the latest market close, Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) is trading in a shallow pullback, 2.2% below its all-time high at $73.41. A move of this size is statistically unremarkable. It's the kind of pullback that bounces fast or extends into a deeper correction; the next leg is what matters.
Across all available history, BND has spent enough trading days in the 5%-to-0% drawdown band to build a large sample (3877 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This drawdown band tends to mean-revert quickly. The Dipsern win rate here is informative — if it's well above 50%, momentum traders treat these dips as buy-the-pullback setups.
Five tickers closest to BND's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for BND. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of BND's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for BND.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy BND at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.