FBTC

How is FBTC doing right now?

In plain terms: FBTC is 47.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

FBTC (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund) is 47.8% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a severe drawdown, with the last trade at $57.13. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, FBTC has spent enough trading days in the 50%-to-45% drawdown band to build a modest sample (16 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for FBTC

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.