Fidelity Ethereum Fund
$17.88
-63.1%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against FETH's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: FETH's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The index is constructed using ether price feeds from eligible ether spot markets and a volume-weighted median price methodology, calculated every 15 seconds based on VWMP spot market data over rolling sixty-minute increments. In seeking to achieve its investment objective, the trust will hold ether and will value its shares daily based on the same methodology used to calculate the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: FETH is 63.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
FETH (Fidelity Ethereum Fund) is 63.1% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a historic crash, with the last trade at $17.88. Historic crashes (60%+ drawdowns) are rare events. For some assets they marked generational entries; for others they were warning signs of permanent capital loss.
Across all available history, FETH has spent enough trading days in the 65%-to-60% drawdown band to build a modest sample (14 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Crash-level drawdowns are tail events with few historical analogs. The signal should be read as "here's what happened the last few times" rather than a base-rate forecast.
Five tickers closest to FETH's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for FETH. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of FETH's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for FETH.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy FETH at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.