MAR

How is MAR doing right now?

In plain terms: MAR is 0.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now MAR — Marriott International — is at or near all-time highs, down 0.9% from its record high. Last price: $399.1. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.

What history says at this drawdown

MAR reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (1826 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for MAR

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.