Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. · Consumer Cyclical
$20.33
-68.1%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against NCLH's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: NCLH's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: NCLH is 68.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) sits 68.1% off its peak and is currently in a historic crash, last printing at $20.33. Historic crashes (60%+ drawdowns) are rare events. For some assets they marked generational entries; for others they were warning signs of permanent capital loss.
NCLH reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (274 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for NCLH reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Crash-level drawdowns are tail events with few historical analogs. The signal should be read as "here's what happened the last few times" rather than a base-rate forecast.
Five tickers closest to NCLH's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for NCLH. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of NCLH's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for NCLH.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy NCLH at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.