NOBL

How is NOBL doing right now?

In plain terms: NOBL is 51% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

NOBL (ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF) is 51.0% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a severe drawdown, with the last trade at $55.82. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

NOBL has rarely been in the 55% to 50% drawdown band over its trading history, so the sample size for forecasting forward returns is small. We surface this transparently — small samples are still informative, but the confidence interval is wider than for assets with decades of data at this level.

What this means for NOBL

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.