PALL

How is PALL doing right now?

In plain terms: PALL is 58.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) sits 58.3% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $24.58. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for PALL — 89 confirmed observations in the 60%-to-55% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for PALL

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.