VanEck Semiconductor ETF
$616.00
-4.8%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SMH's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SMH's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index includes common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. exchange-listed companies in the semiconductor industry. Such companies may include medium-capitalization companies and foreign companies that are listed on a U.S. exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SMH is 4.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now SMH — VanEck Semiconductor ETF — is in a shallow pullback, down 4.8% from its record high. Last price: $616. A move of this size is statistically unremarkable. It's the kind of pullback that bounces fast or extends into a deeper correction; the next leg is what matters.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SMH — 950 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This drawdown band tends to mean-revert quickly. The Dipsern win rate here is informative — if it's well above 50%, momentum traders treat these dips as buy-the-pullback setups.
Five tickers closest to SMH's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SMH. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SMH's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SMH.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SMH at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.