State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$761.69
-2.1%
Sep 19, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SPY's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SPY's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the “Portfolio”), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SPY is 2.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
As of the latest market close, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is trading in a shallow pullback, 2.1% below its all-time high at $761.69. A move of this size is statistically unremarkable. It's the kind of pullback that bounces fast or extends into a deeper correction; the next leg is what matters.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SPY — 4627 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This drawdown band tends to mean-revert quickly. The Dipsern win rate here is informative — if it's well above 50%, momentum traders treat these dips as buy-the-pullback setups.
Five tickers closest to SPY's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SPY. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SPY's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SPY.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SPY at your own broker.
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Signal computed Sep 19, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.