VALE3

How is VALE3 doing right now?

In plain terms: VALE3 is 12.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

VALE3 (Vale SA) is 12.5% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a moderate correction, with the last trade at $78.84. A drawdown of this depth is where patient buyers start paying attention. Historically the asymmetry begins to favor accumulation here, especially when paired with structural demand.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for VALE3 — 500 confirmed observations in the 15%-to-10% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in brazilian stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for VALE3

Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to VALE3's own volatility history. Moderate corrections are the highest-information zone for the Dipsern signal: enough drawdown for mean-reversion to matter, not so much that fundamentals are likely broken. Watch the prediction-error column — if past signals at this level were accurate, the current one is more trustworthy.