VBR

How is VBR doing right now?

In plain terms: VBR is 0.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now VBR — Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF — is at or near all-time highs, down 0.3% from its record high. Last price: $240.51. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, VBR has spent enough trading days in the 5%-to-0% drawdown band to build a large sample (2940 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for VBR

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.