Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares
$55.05
-36.5%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against VGLT's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: VGLT's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. This index includes fixed income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury (not including inflation-protected bonds, floating rate securities and certain other security types), with maturities greater than 10 years. Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the fund's assets will be invested in bonds included in the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: VGLT is 36.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) sits 36.5% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $55.05. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.
Across all available history, VGLT has spent enough trading days in the 40%-to-35% drawdown band to build a large sample (609 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.
Five tickers closest to VGLT's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for VGLT. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of VGLT's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for VGLT.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy VGLT at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.