Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund ETF Shares
$50.35
-0.7%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against VTEB's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: VTEB's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The Target Index includes municipal bonds issued by states, local governments, or agencies whose interest is exempt from U.S. federal income taxes and the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). Under normal circumstances, the fund invests at least 80% of its net assets, plus the amount of any borrowings for investment purposes, in the bonds that make up the Target Index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: VTEB is 0.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
VTEB (Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF) is 0.7% below its historical peak. Tape reads at or near all-time highs, with the last trade at $50.35. That puts VTEB in a momentum regime: buyers are in control and there's no meaningful technical damage on the chart yet.
Across all available history, VTEB has spent enough trading days in the 5%-to-0% drawdown band to build a large sample (2203 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. At this level the Dipsern signal is mostly tracking momentum, not mean reversion. Most buying-the-dip frameworks aren't relevant when there is no dip.
Five tickers closest to VTEB's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for VTEB. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of VTEB's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for VTEB.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy VTEB at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.