Commonwealth Bank of Australia · Financial Services
$152.43
-18.0%
Sep 19, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against CBA's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: CBA's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides retail and commercial banking services in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Services, Business Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, and New Zealand segments. The company offers savings and term deposit accounts, commonwealth direct investment accounts, and retail transaction accounts, as well as specialized accounts, such as statutory trust, society cheque, farm management, cash and treasury management,
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: CBA is 18% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now CBA — Commonwealth Bank of Australia — is in a moderate correction, down 18.0% from its record high. Last price: $152.43. Corrections in this band are common during macro repricings (rate scares, sector rotations, earnings shocks). The question is whether the cause is durable or transient.
Across all available history, CBA has spent enough trading days in the 20%-to-15% drawdown band to build a large sample (831 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to CBA's own volatility history. This is the band where most successful "buy the dip" strategies have historically operated. The median forward return here for CBA is in the full app, alongside the segment-level win rate.
Five tickers closest to CBA's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for CBA. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of CBA's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for CBA.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy CBA at your own broker.
Analyze CBA FreeNo credit card required · 5 free analyses per month
Signal computed Sep 19, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.