GBTC

How is GBTC doing right now?

In plain terms: GBTC is 50.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now GBTC — Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF — is in a severe drawdown, down 50.1% from its record high. Last price: $49.13. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what GBTC did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, GBTC has spent enough trading days in the 55%-to-50% drawdown band to build a meaningful sample (90 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for GBTC

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.