Lynas Rare Earths Limited · Basic Materials
$14.35
-44.0%
Sep 19, 2026
D
WeakGraded against LYC's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: LYC's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds interests in the Mt Weld rare earths mine and concentration plant near Laverton in Western Australia; a rare earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and an advanced materials plant in Gebeng, Malaysia. It also offers light rare earths, including lanthanum, cerium, praseodymiu
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: LYC is 44% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now LYC — Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. — is in a severe drawdown, down 44.0% from its record high. Last price: $14.35. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what LYC did after similar episodes.
Across all available history, LYC has spent enough trading days in the 45%-to-40% drawdown band to build a large sample (316 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to LYC's own volatility history. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.
Five tickers closest to LYC's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for LYC. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of LYC's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for LYC.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy LYC at your own broker.
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Signal computed Sep 19, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.