Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF
$34.75
-3.8%
Aug 12, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SCHA's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SCHA's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
To pursue its goal, the fund generally invests in stocks that are included in the index. The index includes the small-cap portion of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index actually available to investors in the marketplace. The Dow Jones U.S. Small-Cap Total Stock Market Index includes the components ranked 751-2500 by full market capitalization. The index is a float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index. The fund will invest at least 90% of its net assets in these stocks.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SCHA is 3.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) sits 3.8% off its peak and is currently in a shallow pullback, last printing at $34.75. Shallow pullbacks like this are routine — historically ETFs assets revisit a 5-10% dip several times a year, and most resolve back to highs within weeks.
SCHA reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (2122 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Shallow pullbacks are where dip-buying frameworks start to pay off, but only marginally. The median forward return in shallow bands is usually positive but not dramatic.
Five tickers closest to SCHA's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SCHA. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SCHA's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SCHA.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SCHA at your own broker.
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Signal computed Aug 12, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.