Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF
$24.15
-0.3%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SCHO's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SCHO's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund will invest at least 90% of its net assets (including, for this purpose, any borrowings for investment purposes) in securities included in the index. The index includes all publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to one year and less than three years, are rated investment grade, and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value. The securities in the index must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed-rate and non-co
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SCHO is 0.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
SCHO (Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF) is 0.3% below its historical peak. Tape reads at or near all-time highs, with the last trade at $24.15. That puts SCHO in a momentum regime: buyers are in control and there's no meaningful technical damage on the chart yet.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SCHO — 3888 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. At this level the Dipsern signal is mostly tracking momentum, not mean reversion. Most buying-the-dip frameworks aren't relevant when there is no dip.
Five tickers closest to SCHO's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SCHO. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SCHO's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SCHO.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SCHO at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.