Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares
$58.22
-0.4%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against VGSH's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: VGSH's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Bloomberg US Treasury 1-3 Year Index. This index includes fixed income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury (not including inflation-protected securities, floating rate securities and certain other security types), all with maturities between 1 and 3 years. At least 80% of the fund's assets will be invested in bonds included in the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: VGSH is 0.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now VGSH — Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF — is at or near all-time highs, down 0.4% from its record high. Last price: $58.22. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for VGSH — 4063 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.
Five tickers closest to VGSH's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for VGSH. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of VGSH's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for VGSH.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy VGSH at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.