Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
$689.75
-1.2%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against VOO's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: VOO's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index. The fund is non-diversified.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: VOO is 1.2% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now VOO — Vanguard S&P 500 ETF — is at or near all-time highs, down 1.2% from its record high. Last price: $689.75. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.
VOO reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (2918 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.
Five tickers closest to VOO's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for VOO. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of VOO's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for VOO.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy VOO at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.