Australian Stocks signal
NAB

NAB

National Australia Bank Limited · Financial Services

Australian StocksBanks - DiversifiedASXAUD-19.7% from ATH
Current Price

$38.57

Drawdown from ATH

-19.7%

Last Updated

Jul 5, 2026

Dipsern Grade90d

C

Marginal

Graded against NAB's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.

What it means: NAB's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.

What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.

Median 90-Day Return
Historical Win Rate
Last 30 days+6.76%
Jul 2Aug 12
About NAB

National Australia Bank Limited

National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Business and Private Banking; Personal Banking; Corporate and Institutional Banking; New Zealand Banking; and Corporate Functions and Other segments. It accepts transaction accounts, savings accounts, debit cards, and term deposits; and specialized accounts, such as foreign currency, business intere

The reading

How Dipsern reads NAB right now.

Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.

Snapshot

How is NAB doing right now?

In plain terms: NAB is 19.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

NAB (National Australia Bank Ltd.) is 19.7% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a moderate correction, with the last trade at $38.57. A drawdown of this depth is where patient buyers start paying attention. Historically the asymmetry begins to favor accumulation here, especially when paired with structural demand.

Historical base rate

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, NAB has spent enough trading days in the 20%-to-15% drawdown band to build a large sample (735 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

Interpretation

What this means for NAB

Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to NAB's own volatility history. Moderate corrections are the highest-information zone for the Dipsern signal: enough drawdown for mean-reversion to matter, not so much that fundamentals are likely broken. Watch the prediction-error column — if past signals at this level were accurate, the current one is more trustworthy.

Comparable signals

Other Australian Stocks at similar drawdown levels

Five tickers closest to NAB's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd.

-19.8% from ATH

Goodman Group

-19.6% from ATH

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd.

-19.1% from ATH

Origin Energy Ltd.

-19.0% from ATH

Suncorp Group Ltd.

-18.6% from ATH

Historical depth

Sample sizes by drawdown band

Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for NAB. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.

Drawdown BandObservationsMedian ReturnWin Rate
-65% to -60%2
-60% to -55%21
-55% to -50%66
-50% to -45%83
-45% to -40%121
-40% to -35%216
-35% to -30%418
-30% to -25%432
-25% to -20%399
-20% to -15%Current735
-15% to -10%1129
-10% to -5%2147
Methodology

Every grade is reproducible.

We segment 40+ years of NAB's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.

Years of history

40+

Drawdown bands

20

Look-ahead bias

None

Data sources

4

Unlock NAB's full analysis

See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for NAB.

Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy NAB at your own broker.

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Signal computed Jul 5, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.