Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
$23.15
-2.3%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SCHZ's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SCHZ's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund will invest at least 90% of its net assets in securities included in the index. The index is a broad-based benchmark measuring the performance of the U.S. investment grade, taxable bond market, including U.S. Treasuries, government-related and corporate bonds, mortgage pass-through securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities that are publicly available for sale in the United States.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SCHZ is 2.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now SCHZ — Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF — is in a shallow pullback, down 2.3% from its record high. Last price: $23.15. A move of this size is statistically unremarkable. It's the kind of pullback that bounces fast or extends into a deeper correction; the next leg is what matters.
SCHZ reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (2798 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This drawdown band tends to mean-revert quickly. The Dipsern win rate here is informative — if it's well above 50%, momentum traders treat these dips as buy-the-pullback setups.
Five tickers closest to SCHZ's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
-2.3% from ATH
Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF
-2.3% from ATH
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF
-2.3% from ATH
Invesco QQQ Trust
-2.3% from ATH
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
-2.2% from ATH
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SCHZ. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SCHZ's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SCHZ.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SCHZ at your own broker.
Analyze SCHZ FreeNo credit card required · 5 free analyses per month
Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.