XOP

How is XOP doing right now?

In plain terms: XOP is 41.6% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) sits 41.6% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $157.17. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

XOP reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (244 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for XOP

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.